Wale Edun, minister of finance, federal has said government may not achieve its 2025 revenue target, with a projected shortfall of about N30 trillion.
Gatekeepers News reports that Edun disclosed this on Tuesday in Abuja while appearing before the House of Representatives committees on finance and national planning during an interactive session on the 2026–2028 Medium-Term Expenditure Framework and Fiscal Strategy Paper.
He explained that although the government set a revenue target of N40.8 trillion for 2025, available figures show that earnings may end at roughly N10.7 trillion.
The minister attributed the expected gap to weak oil and gas income, especially from petroleum profit tax and company income tax, as well as low returns from other revenue sources.
Edun said, “The current trajectory indicates that federal revenues for the full year will likely end at around N10.7 trillion, compared to the N40.8 trillion projection.”
Despite the revenue pressure, he said the government has continued to meet major financial commitments through prudent treasury management.
According to him, salaries, statutory transfers, and both local and foreign debt obligations were settled through “creative handling” of available funds.
Edun also cautioned against rigid spending plans tied to uncertain oil income, urging flexibility in expenditure decisions.
He said, “We must be ambitious, but given the experience of the past two years, spending linked to these revenues must depend on the funds actually coming in.”
Speaking separately, Atiku Bagudu, minister of budget and national planning, said the MTEF and FSP were developed after wide consultations with public institutions and the private sector.
He noted that while oil production for the 2026 budget is projected at 2.06 million barrels per day, a more conservative benchmark of 1.84 million barrels per day would be used for revenue estimates.
Meanwhile, James Faleke, chairman of the House committee on finance, stressed the need for careful review of fiscal plans to avoid poor economic choices.
