Diesel imports from India into West Africa have surged to record levels, highlighting the region’s continued dependence on foreign refined fuel despite repeated policy commitments to boost local refining capacity.
Gatekeepers News reports that data from the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) show that Nigeria alone accounts for about 63 per cent of West Africa’s diesel imports from India, as domestic refineries remain unable to meet national demand.
According to the regulator, Nigeria’s average daily diesel production is 6.1 million litres, compared with estimated daily consumption of about 16.4 million litres, leaving a supply gap of more than 10 million litres per day.
The domestic output is led by the Dangote Refinery at 5.783 million litres per day, followed by Aradel Refinery at about 0.289 million litres, Edo Refinery at 0.052 million litres, and Waltersmith Refinery at 0.051 million litres.
With domestic supply covering only 37 per cent of demand, the remaining 63 per cent is met through imports.
India’s growing dominance
Data from S&P Global Commodity at Sea show that Indian diesel shipments to West African countries have climbed sharply since 2022, peaking at nearly 800,000 metric tonnes by early 2026, as structural supply gaps persist across the region’s largest economies.
Between 2022 and early 2023, flows were highly volatile, swinging between below 100,000 tonnes and above 400,000 tonnes, reflecting post-pandemic demand shifts, foreign exchange shortages and subsidy reforms in key markets such as Nigeria and Ghana.
From mid-2023 through 2024, import volumes became structurally higher, with regular monthly spikes above 400,000 tonnes, signalling deeper reliance on Indian refiners. Their large-scale operations, flexible pricing and access to discounted crude helped them displace traditional European suppliers.
A Kpler report notes that India’s rise as Africa’s dominant diesel supplier was also driven by global trade realignments, after Europe reduced intake of Russian-linked products, forcing Indian gasoil to seek alternative markets.
Record surge in 2026
The most dramatic acceleration occurred from late 2025 into early 2026, when shipments surged to an unprecedented 800,000 tonnes.
The rise reflects not only growing fuel consumption, but also stress across West Africa’s energy systems. Chronic power shortages have entrenched diesel-powered generation, while population growth, logistics expansion and industrial activity continue to push demand higher.
At the same time, refinery underperformance, outages and project delays across the region have constrained local supply responses.
Nigeria’s import dependence
The contradiction is most visible in Nigeria, West Africa’s largest diesel market. Despite new refining capacity and official claims of improving supply, diesel — unlike petrol — remains fully deregulated and heavily import-dependent.
NMDPRA monthly data for 2025 show that total diesel supply averaged 15.1 million litres per day in January, with imports contributing 8.6 million litres. Supply rose to 17.1 million litres in February and peaked at 21.1 million litres in March, when imports surged to 16.7 million litres, far exceeding domestic output of 4.4 million litres.
Total supply dropped to 14.1 million litres per day in May, the lowest level of the year, as imports fell and local production weakened.
Although local refineries helped stabilise supply between July and August, contributing up to eight million litres per day, imports remained the key swing factor.
Another import-led rebound in October pushed supply to 21.3 million litres per day, before easing to 17.9 million litres in December.
Trade dislocations deepen inflows
Kpler also notes that European Union sanctions banning oil products derived from Russian crude have sidelined some Indian gasoil from European markets.
Although refiners such as Reliance Industries have adjusted crude slates to meet compliance rules, European buyers remain cautious, diverting volumes toward Africa.
As a result, diesel cargoes have increasingly accumulated off the West African coast, intensifying competition and compressing margins across the Atlantic Basin.
