Femi Otedola, chairman of First HoldCo, has expressed strong optimism that the naira will record significant gains and trade below N1,000 to the dollar before the end of 2026, driven largely by increased domestic fuel production from Dangote Petroleum Refinery.
Gatekeepers News reports that in a statement shared on Thursday, Otedola said Nigeria’s long-standing dependence on imported petroleum products is gradually ending, and this shift is expected to ease pressure on the country’s foreign exchange market.
The business mogul explained that as local refining becomes fully established, demand for dollars to import fuel will decline, helping to stabilise and strengthen the naira.
“I am optimistic that the naira will strengthen meaningfully, and trading below N1,000/$1 before year-end is increasingly within reach,” Otedola said.
His comments followed the announcement by the Dangote refinery that it has reached its full operational capacity of 650,000 barrels per day. According to the company, this milestone was achieved after the successful completion of scheduled maintenance and optimisation of its crude distillation unit and motor spirit production block. The restoration of these key units has enabled the refinery to operate at peak efficiency and supply significantly higher volumes of refined products to the local market.
Otedola congratulated Aliko Dangote, founder of the refinery, describing the achievement as a landmark development not only for Nigeria but for the entire African continent. He noted that the ability of the refinery to supply up to 75 million litres of Premium Motor Spirit daily will drastically reduce Nigeria’s reliance on fuel imports, conserve scarce foreign exchange, and enhance energy security.
“More importantly, it is transformational for Nigeria and Africa. Supplying up to 75 million litres of PMS daily changes our energy narrative and conserving foreign exchange,” he said.
Otedola also disclosed that Dangote is embarking on a massive $12 billion expansion project aimed at increasing the refinery’s capacity to 1.4 million barrels per day. In addition, the expansion will include facilities to produce 2.4 million tonnes of polypropylene and 400,000 metric tonnes of linear alkyl benzene annually, key inputs for plastics and detergent manufacturing. He added that construction work on the expansion is already underway.
“Work has already commenced in earnest,” Otedola said.
He further described Dangote as a source of national pride, stating that Nigeria stands to benefit immensely from the industrial investments being made in the energy and manufacturing sectors.
Recent data from the foreign exchange market showed that the naira strengthened to N1,400.47 against the dollar at the official window on January 29, signalling early signs of currency recovery.
Analysts believe that sustained local fuel production, reduced import bills, and improved export capacity could further support the naira in the coming months.
