Federal Executive Council (FEC) has approved Nigeria’s 2026-2028 Medium-Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF), setting out the country’s economic outlook, revenue targets, and spending priorities for the next three years.
Gatekeepers News reports that the announcement was made after a Wednesday meeting presided over by President Bola Tinubu, with Budget and National Planning Minister Atiku Bagudu addressing journalists.
Bagudu explained that the MTEF was prepared jointly by the Budget Office of the Federation and his ministry. While the council set an oil production benchmark of 2.06 million barrels per day for 2026, planning is based on a cautious 1.8 million bpd, with oil priced at $64 per barrel and an exchange rate of N1,512/$.
He said, “The exchange rate projection reflects that 2026 precedes a general election year”, noting that all assumptions stem from detailed macroeconomic and fiscal analyses. Inflation is projected at an average of 18 percent.
The total revenue accruing to the federation in 2026 is estimated at N50.74 trillion, to be shared among federal, state, and local governments.
Bagudu said, “From this projection, the federal government is expected to receive N22.6 trillion, states N16.3 trillion, and local governments N11.85 trillion.”
Consolidating revenues from federal sources, including N4.98 trillion from government-owned enterprises, total Federal Government revenue is projected at N34.33 trillion, a 16 percent decline from the 2025 budget estimate.
Statutory transfers are expected at about N3 trillion, debt servicing at N10.91 trillion, and non-debt recurrent spending at N15.27 trillion. The fiscal deficit for 2026 is estimated at N20.1 trillion, representing 3.61 percent of GDP.
The MTEF also projects nominal GDP to reach over N690 trillion in 2026 and N890.6 trillion by 2028, with a 4.6 percent growth rate in 2026. Non-oil GDP is expected to rise from N550.7 trillion to N871.3 trillion, while oil GDP is projected to grow from N557.4 trillion to N893.5 trillion over the same period.
Bagudu emphasised that the president is confident that sustaining reforms and implementing the MTEF will strengthen Nigeria’s growth trajectory.
FEC also approved Medium-Term Fiscal Expenditure Ceiling (MFTEC), a guideline to control spending and promote fiscal discipline, following input from various ministers.
