The International Energy Agency (IEA) says upstream oil and gas investment across Africa remains heavily concentrated in five countries—Algeria, Angola, Egypt, Nigeria and Libya—which together account for 70 per cent of the continent’s investment and 80 per cent of its production.
Gatekeepers News reports that the agency disclosed this in its 2026 World Energy Investment Report, published on Tuesday, noting that Africa’s upstream oil and gas investment fell to $37 billion in 2025 from $68 billion in 2016.
According to the report, Africa’s upstream sector has experienced contrasting trends over the past decade, with established producers facing declining investment while emerging suppliers continue to attract new capital.
“In the past decade, the continent’s upstream sector has shown diverging trends between established producers and emerging suppliers,” the agency said.
“Investment in the region remains highly concentrated with five countries – Algeria, Angola, Egypt, Nigeria and Libya – accounting for 70% of investment and 80% of production.
“However, total investment across these producers has halved from USD 50 billion in 2016 to USD 25 billion in 2025, despite an increase in Libya, reflecting shifts in investment competitiveness.”
By contrast, the IEA said investment in emerging oil and gas producers has grown significantly over the same period.
The report showed that capital expenditure in Mozambique, Namibia, Senegal and Uganda increased from $1.5 billion in 2016 to $5 billion in 2025, despite the countries having relatively limited oil and gas production.
According to the agency, the trend reflects fewer investment opportunities in mature producing assets and increasing spending on new, capital-intensive projects such as deepwater developments and liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminals.
“This reflects fewer opportunities to invest in mature assets and the development of new capital-intensive projects (particularly deepwater and LNG terminals), resulting in higher investment requirements relative to current output,” the IEA said.
The agency also noted that exploration capital expenditure across Africa reached nearly $6.5 billion in 2025, driven by continued exploration activities around recent discoveries.
“Given that the average global rate of commercial success is 27%, exploration is inherently risky, with national oil companies (NOCs) taking on a greater role.
“However, constrained government budgets in several producer countries can limit the ability of NOCs to fund upstream investment, raising reliance on partnerships and alternative financing arrangements, as seen in Mozambique and Senegal.”
Despite the increasing role of national oil companies, the IEA said private and international oil companies continue to dominate upstream investment across the continent, highlighting Africa’s dependence on external financing, advanced technology and project execution expertise.
The report added that national oil companies account for about one-quarter of total capital expenditure, a level broadly consistent with historical trends.
Sub-Saharan Africa Investment Set to Rebound
Looking ahead, the IEA projects that upstream investment in sub-Saharan Africa will increase by 12 per cent to about $24 billion in 2026 after declining by 18 per cent year-on-year in 2025.
According to the agency, BP’s investment plans for 2026 are focused on expanding production in Angola and Namibia’s Orange Basin through the Azule Energy joint venture.
The report also noted that LNG development projects remain active in Nigeria and Mozambique, with both international oil majors and local companies continuing to invest.
In addition, Nigeria is advancing several deepwater oil projects in partnership with major international energy companies, reinforcing its position as one of Africa’s leading upstream investment destinations.
