For 2027, Makinde has moved from being a PDP governor of Oyo state, to being a Presidential candidate – but not in PDP. That’s the key twist.
Like every politician, Makinde is an optimist. He facies his chances of becoming the next Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of the Federal Republic of Nigeria; even with the plethora of unfinished businesses in the Agodi Government House, Ibadan.
Who has Seyi Makinde been talking to? He is no longer just talking inside PDP. Since late March-April 2026, the talks have been cross-party. Rabiu Kwankwaso, then National Leader of NNPP/Nigeria Democratic Congress and Makinde met in Kano during the last Eid-el-Fitr with Peter Obi present. The Punch newspaper and other media reported it was officially Sallah but actually 2027 alignment talks.
Not a little prodding has also come from Bala Mohammed, Governor of Bauchi, Chairman PDP Governors Forum, and now National Leader of his new platform, Allied Peoples Movement (APM). Bala is the senior partner in Makinde’s current structure.
Peter Obi, 2023 Labour Party presidential candidate, now the presidential candidate of the Nigeria Democratic Congress was in the Kano meeting with Makinde and Kwankwaso.
Seriake Dickson, Senator representing Bayelsa West was in the Bauchi closed-door meeting with Makinde and Bala before Kano.
Within PDP, he is in the anti-Wike bloc. He openly accused the Wike camp of “holding PDP for Tinubu for 2027”. His camp held its own Ibadan convention that elected Tanimu Turaki National Working Committee, which the Court of Appeal later nullified.
None of these heavyweights could have been misadvising Makinde. But experience has shown that politicians can be more gullible than anybody could have envisaged especially if the people around them have discovered their mumu botton.
The inner circle has shifted from Oyo PDP to the Allied Peoples Movement (APM) structure. Makinde’s chief adviser is Bala Mohammed, APM National Leader and ideological/political father of the party ticket.
The roll call includes; Lawal Daura, former Director General, Department of State Services (DSS), named as his running mate. There is also Felix Hyat, DG, National Campaign Management Committee.
In Oyo, his anointed successor is Bimbo Adekanmbi for governorship, which is why Rep Akin Alabi claimed recently that Makinde’s presidential run is really a vehicle to keep Oyo PDP/APM alive.
To those who mock Makinde on this adventure or would prefer to call it mis-adventure, the APM flag bearer has his target set. He, surely, has his eyes on something different from the Aso Villa, and he may end up hitting it.
His strengths:
Two-term governor with performance story: he cites Internally Generated Revenue (IGR) growth without tax hike, over 70% budget performance compared to 28% when he came in.
He has a businessman background. He started a private company at 29, as an oil and gas engineer. He is not a career politician.
He has a youthful image, showing in his energetic campaign style. His 2027 pitch is “RESET” in 4 years, promising a transitional unity government, and a one-term regime.
Weaknesses:
However, his chosen political party lacks broad national structure. APM was a fringe party until he joined. Targeting 68 million votes out of 103 million registered is ambitious rhetoric, not ground game. In fact, it is a grand joke.
PDP is fractured. He says “We’re comfortable in our PDP” but is running on APM. That legal duality is a risk. There is no way INEC ballot can accommodate this.
Makinde has no Northern base yet beyond Bala Mohammed. 2027 still likely Tinubu versus Atiku/Obi/Kwankwaso.
How shrewd is Makinde’s politics?
At Oyo level, yes. He dismantled the old Teslim Folarin/Alao-Akala axis, won twice against All Progressive Congress (APC) federal power, kept Oyo PDP loyal, and rewarded first-term lawmakers with return tickets.
At national level, his closest to astuteness was his membership of the G5 led by then Rivers state governor Nyesom Wike in the 2023 general election against Atiku. This gave him Southern leverage, but then broke with Wike when Wike went to APC government as FCT Minister. That anti-Wike stance wins him sympathy in PDP Governors Forum but costs him control of PDP National Secretariat. Moving to APM gives him a ballot line but loses PDP’s legacy structure.
How appealing is his ambition?
His message is designed for appeal: one-term, tax the rich not poor, fix power, reset security so businesses can work beyond 8pm. It appeals to youth and urban middle class tired of “turn-by-turn nepotism” as he calls it.
But polling-wise, in Yoruba land 2027 is still Tinubu’s field. Makinde argues South-West can produce two candidates like Obasanjo versus Falae in 1999 – “heaven did not fall”. That logic is constitutionally correct but politically tough: challenging a sitting Yoruba President as a Yoruba man is seen as betrayal in some gerontocratic circles.
His political future
This is the biggest risk.
Yoruba politics is elder-led: Afenifere elders, Obas council, Tinubu as Jagaban, plus old Action Group/UPN networks. Respect for seniority plus “enikan” turn system is strong. A 58-year-old governor running against a 75-year-old sitting President from same zone will be framed as “omo kekere” disrespecting elders.
Added to this was his stunt at the Dome, Ondo State International Conference Centre, Akure during the South-West Town Hall on Oct 23, 2026 where he jumped down from the stage, and said “When they bring their presidential candidate, let the candidate come here and also jump down! If they can do that, vote for them!”
Backlash from this remark which had been interpreted as a jab at President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, the APC candidate has come from supporters of the president including Sunday Igboho who said: “Jumping around like a frog and a mad man, insulting Tinubu… If you insult Tinubu, I will insult you back”.
In addition, APM Chieftain Adebisi Olopoeyan also said: “Presidency not wrestling or boxing ground, jumping does not show competence.”
The Akure jump shows his strategy: make 2027 about energy vs age. In Yoruba gerontocracy, that is dangerous. Elders see it as mocking Tinubu’s age. Igboho’s reaction is a sample of what Oba-in-Council and Afenifere elders may say privately: “Don’t disrespect agba.”
If he loses badly and loses Oyo governorship to APC in 2027 (if Adekanmbi loses to Sharafadeen Alli), he becomes politically naked – no federal post, no state. Wike’s camp already says “Even his gateman knows he can’t become president” – that’s the mocking line that will be used.
If he does well, even 15-20% nationally, he stands as South-West opposition leader post-Tinubu, like Awolowo after losing. That is the gamble: short-term threat is high, long-term payoff if he builds APM into a real third force.
If he keeps doing North-East, South-West plus North-Central town halls and gets Kwankwaso and Obi not to attack him, he can claim to be the “compromise Southern candidate” who will do 4 years only – same promise Obi made.
Financing: How save is Oyo’s safe
The main allegation flying around Ibadan now is that the governor is spending the state resources on his presidential ambition and the opposition APC has made it the centre of its 2027 Oyo campaign.
There is no EFCC conviction or court finding that Oyo treasury is funding Makinde’s presidential run. What exists are allegations from opposition groups, which Makinde denies.
Here is the breakdown of what is being said:
Oyo House of Assembly approved a fresh N100bn loan 7 months to the end of Makinde’s tenure.
The Campaign Organisation of the APC governorship candidate in the state, Senator Sharafadeen Alli alleged: “There is no doubt that the proposed borrowing was not driven by any genuine developmental consideration but by a desperate political agenda to finance the 2027 elections and sustain Governor Makinde’s increasingly uncertain political ambition.”
APC state publicity secretary Wasiu Sadare threatened: “Engr. Makinde and his cronies shall be made to cough out every kobo… immediately after expiration of his final term.”
LG Funds for Akure Rally
The APC Campaign Organisation alleged Makinde directed 33 LGs to fund mobilisation of APM members to Akure Dome rally on Oct 22.
“Our campaign organisation is fully aware of a directive to the 33 local governments councils in Oyo State to fund mobilisation of party members to Akure.
“This is linked to N4.2bn budgeted for LG election Dec 29, 2026, with councils forced to contribute 60% – N2.52bn”.
c) N4bn/N250m Monthly to APM
A group called Save Oyo Movement (SOM) led by its Coordinator Comrade Akeem Oladiti alleged: “over the past six months, about N250 million has been released every month for the running of the APM… including payment of staff salaries”, adding “more than 30 Hilux vehicles were purchased for distribution to APM state coordinators.”
The group called on the Economic and Financial Crime Commission (EFCC) and the Independent Corrupt Practices and Other Related Offences Commission (ICPC) to investigate.
Responding on behalf of the Allied Peoples Movement in Oyo, Dr Sulaiman Olanrewaju dismissed the allegations as baseless, stressing that APM presidential ambition is driven by “national vision rather than political calculations.”
The Makinde Campaign group highlighted what it called “public record of financing the campaign” to include; the governor’s personal wealth. “He was a multi-millionaire before politics, adding “he founded Makon Engineering/Oil & Gas at 29. He has always said he doesn’t need Oyo money. In 2019, he declared assets worth N48bn. That is his base story.”
According to the group, the APM structure with Bala Mohammed as National Leader is said to bring Bauchi/North East business networks. The 30 Hilux vans said to be acquired and parked at Makinde’s Abuja campaign office would be from that network, not Oyo budget.
In Oyo, every contractor knows 2027 is succession battle. Supporting Makinde’s presidential poster helps them secure Adekanmbi’s ticket. That is typical Nigerian godfather funding, not treasury diversion, the campaign organization stressed.
Is Oyo treasury the backbone?
Legally, no evidence beyond allegations. Politically, every opposition in Nigeria says incumbent uses state treasury – APC said same about Ortom, Wike, etc. The danger for Makinde is that even allegation hurts: if EFCC actually investigates LG funds after he leaves office in May 2027, he loses immunity and his presidential run becomes a court case.
The more realistic backbone is Oyo state political machine – the 33 LG chairmen, SAs, supervisory councillors, PMS (park managers) who are state-paid but mobilised for APM rallies. That blurs the line between state resource and campaign resource, which is what Alli’s camp is calling “diversion”
Oladipo Sanusi is an Abuja based publisher/public affairs commentator ..
