International Monetary Fund (IMF) has upgraded Nigeria’s economic growth forecast for 2025 to 3.4%, reflecting a 0.4 percentage point increase from the 3.0% projection in its April 2025 World Economic Outlook (WEO).
Gatekeepers News reports that the revision, outlined in the IMF’s latest July 2025 WEO Update, signals renewed optimism about Nigeria’s near-term economic prospects.
According to the IMF, Nigeria is expected to maintain a 3.4% growth rate in 2025, followed by a slightly lower 3.2% growth rate in 2026. This upward revision is attributed to more favourable financial conditions, a temporary easing in tariff pressures, and resilient trade activity.
The IMF’s projection places Nigeria ahead of South Africa, which has a growth forecast of 1.0% for 2025 and 1.3% for 2026. However, Nigeria’s growth rate is still below the broader Sub-Saharan African region average growth of 4.0% in 2025 and 4.3% in 2026.
The IMF attributed the global economic optimism to “stronger-than-expected front-loading in anticipation of higher tariffs; lower average effective US tariff rates than announced in April; an improvement in financial conditions, including due to a weaker US dollar; and fiscal expansion in some major jurisdictions.”
The report noted that global growth is projected at 3.0% for 2025 and 3.1% in 2026, with global headline inflation expected to fall to 4.2% in 2025 and 3.6% in 2026.
However, the IMF warned that the current trade-related momentum may be short-lived, citing the potential for a “payback” effect in 2026 where the absence of similar stimulus may dampen activity.
