Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMet) has forecast unstable rainfall patterns and prolonged dry spells across many parts of the country in 2026.
Gatekeepers News reports that NiMet warned that the changing climate may significantly affect farming, water supply, health, and disaster management. The forecast was presented in the agency’s 2026 Seasonal Climate Prediction (SCP), unveiled on Tuesday at the NAF Conference Centre in Abuja.
NiMet said rainfall this year is expected to be irregular in timing, intensity, and distribution, with some states experiencing early rains while others may face delayed onset. The agency also warned that several parts of the country may record extended dry periods.
According to the prediction, early rainfall onset is expected in Bayelsa, Rivers, Akwa Ibom, Cross River, Benue, Kogi, Nasarawa, Oyo, and parts of Kebbi, Niger, Jigawa, Katsina, Kano, Adamawa, and Taraba states, while Borno state is likely to experience delayed rains.
NiMet said the rainy season may also end earlier than usual in parts of Ogun, Osun, Ondo, Imo, Rivers, Akwa Ibom, Kogi, and Niger states. However, Lagos, Ogun, Anambra, Enugu, Cross River, Benue, Nasarawa, and Kaduna states are expected to witness a delayed cessation of rainfall.
The agency further projected a longer rainy season in Lagos, Benue, Enugu, Ebonyi, Ogun, Oyo, Nasarawa, Anambra, Kwara, Kebbi, Kaduna, Gombe, and Taraba states, while parts of Borno, Yobe, and Niger states may experience a shorter-than-normal rainy season.
NiMet warned that severe dry spells lasting more than 15 days could occur between March and May in parts of Oyo and Ogun states. It added that dry spells of up to 21 days are expected between June and August in several northern and north-central states.
The agency also noted that the August break may start earlier than usual, from late July, and could be intense and prolonged in Lagos, Ogun, Ekiti, and parts of Oyo.
The forecast further indicated that both daytime and nighttime temperatures are likely to be higher than the long-term average in January, February, March, and May 2026, raising concerns over heat stress, health risks, and water scarcity.
Speaking at the event, Festus Keyamo, minister of aviation and aerospace development, described the seasonal climate outlook as a critical planning tool for agriculture, aviation, disaster response, transportation, and public health. He advised Nigerians, particularly farmers, to rely on NiMet’s official rainfall predictions rather than early rains already being recorded in parts of the south.
Also speaking, Charles Anosike, director-general of NiMet, reaffirmed the agency’s commitment to delivering reliable and science-based climate information. He added that NiMet is expanding the use of artificial intelligence and modern forecasting tools to improve accuracy, enhance early warning systems, and support climate resilience across the country.
