The Presidency has rejected former Vice President Atiku Abubakar’s claim that the Federal Government earned a N7.98 trillion oil windfall, challenging him to provide evidence and explain how he arrived at the figure.
Gatekeepers News reports that in a statement issued on Sunday, the Special Adviser to President Bola Tinubu on Information and Strategy, Bayo Onanuga, described the claim as false while responding to Atiku’s criticism of the Tinubu administration’s borrowing, fuel subsidy removal, tax reforms and broader economic policies.
According to Onanuga, Atiku’s assessment relied largely on 2024 economic data and failed to reflect the impact of reforms introduced by the current administration or changes in the economy since then.
Presidency rejects oil windfall claim
Onanuga argued that the former vice president’s calculation overlooked critical factors such as lower-than-expected crude oil production, production costs, the share of crude allocated to oil-producing companies and existing crude sale agreements.
“There is no such windfall of N7.98 trillion. Any incremental revenue from higher oil prices is reflected in the monthly FAAC figures,” he said.
He added:
“The convenient mistake many analysts make is to multiply the oil price by the daily crude production volume to determine revenue to the government.”
“Such analyses ignore the cost of production, the share of crude belonging to the oil-producing companies and the impact of crude sale contracts such as forward contracts designed to hedge against price volatility.”
Onanuga challenged Atiku to disclose the basis of his calculation.
“Atiku will do well to show the workings for his N7.98 trillion oil windfall.”
The presidential aide explained that although the average Brent crude price during the first half of 2026 was about $90 per barrel, compared with the budget benchmark of $64.85, Nigeria’s average daily crude production stood at about 1.6 million barrels per day, below the projected 1.84 million barrels per day.
According to him, the lower production volume significantly reduced the potential revenue gains from higher oil prices.
Presidency defends borrowing, subsidy removal
Onanuga also defended the administration’s borrowing strategy, arguing that public debt should be assessed in relation to the size of the economy, government revenue, debt-servicing obligations and the purpose of the loans.
He said Nigeria’s debt-to-GDP ratio remains below 40 per cent, which compares favourably with several peer and advanced economies, while the country’s debt-service-to-revenue ratio has fallen from almost 100 per cent in December 2022 to below 60 per cent.
He further argued that the removal of fuel subsidies has increased allocations to states and local governments through the Federation Account Allocation Committee (FAAC), providing additional resources for infrastructure development and social programmes.
According to him, the reforms were introduced to address long-standing structural distortions in the economy rather than simply generate fiscal savings.
Onanuga also maintained that Nigeria’s economy has recovered significantly since the adjustment period of 2024, when the depreciation of the naira reduced the country’s dollar-denominated Gross Domestic Product (GDP) to about $253 billion.
He said the economy has since rebounded to approximately $377 billion, representing a 49 per cent increase, while nominal GDP in naira terms has risen from about N314 trillion in 2024 to around N530 trillion.
Atiku’s criticism
The Presidency’s response followed Atiku’s recent criticism of the Tinubu administration over what he described as excessive domestic borrowing despite what he claimed was a substantial revenue windfall from higher global crude oil prices.
In a statement issued by his Senior Special Assistant on Public Communication, Phrank Shaibu, the former vice president accused the government of pursuing contradictory economic policies and lacking fiscal discipline.
He noted that the Federal Government had raised about N5 trillion from the domestic bond market during the first half of 2026, representing nearly 80 per cent of the amount borrowed during the corresponding period in 2025.
Debt profile and subsidy savings
Analysts have estimated that the removal of fuel subsidies has reduced government expenditure by between N4 trillion and N6 trillion annually.
According to figures from the Debt Management Office (DMO), Nigeria’s total public debt stood at N87.38 trillion as of June 30, 2023, shortly after President Tinubu assumed office.
By December 31, 2025, total public debt had risen to N159.28 trillion, reflecting increased borrowing, exchange rate adjustments and the securitisation of legacy obligations.
During the same period, external debt increased from $42.49 billion in December 2023 to $51.86 billion by December 2025, while domestic debt rose from N59.1 trillion to N89.4 trillion.
The Federal Government has also announced plans to publish a detailed breakdown of the savings realised from the removal of fuel and foreign exchange subsidies and how the funds have been utilised.
Meanwhile, Labour Party presidential candidate Peter Obi recently called on President Tinubu to resign, alleging that the administration has failed to effectively tackle insecurity, hunger and poverty. Obi also pledged that, if elected, he would implement policies that place a greater tax burden on the wealthy while supporting productive sectors of the economy and improving citizens’ welfare.
