Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG) has projected that Nigeria’s economy will grow by approximately 4.2 percent in 2026, citing improved performance in the oil sector and expected gains across other key sectors.
Gatekeepers News reports that the projection was contained in the group’s first-half 2026 State of the Economy report, titled “Turning Potential into Progress,” released on Wednesday.
According to the NESG, economic growth is expected to strengthen to 4.5 percent in the second half of the year, bringing full-year gross domestic product (GDP) growth to about 4.2 percent.
The group said the oil sector is expected to sustain its growth on the back of improved domestic crude oil production, better security conditions and the gradual implementation of reforms in the upstream sector.
It also projected that increased domestic refining activity would boost industrial output, reduce Nigeria’s dependence on imported refined petroleum products and strengthen the country’s external position.
NESG said the manufacturing sector was expected to maintain its growth momentum as easing inflation, relative exchange-rate stability and improved foreign exchange liquidity help reduce production constraints and strengthen business confidence.
However, it warned that manufacturing growth could remain constrained by structural challenges, including unreliable electricity supply, high borrowing costs, elevated logistics expenses and weak domestic demand.
The agriculture sector is also expected to benefit from improved rainfall and favourable harvest conditions, which could increase crop production and ease pressure on food supplies.
Despite the outlook, NESG warned that insecurity in major food-producing areas and climate-related shocks, particularly flooding, could undermine expected gains in agricultural output.
The services sector is projected to remain the major driver of economic growth, with financial services expected to benefit from bank recapitalisation, stronger credit intermediation and improved investor confidence.
The group also expects the information and communications technology sector to maintain strong growth, supported by increased digital adoption, rising data consumption and continued investment in telecommunications infrastructure.
The NESG’s projection comes amid ongoing economic reforms and efforts to improve production, investment and macroeconomic stability in Nigeria.
