Nigeria’s crude oil production declined in December, lagging behind several Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) peers at a time when weakening global oil prices are intensifying fiscal pressure on oil-dependent economies.
Gatekeepers News reports that according to OPEC’s January 2026 Monthly Oil Market Report, Nigeria produced 1.422 million barrels per day (bpd) in December, down from 1.436 million bpd in November. The decline of 14,000 bpd, based on direct communication from member countries, marks a month-on-month drop.
Although modest in volume, analysts say the dip is significant as it disrupts Nigeria’s fragile production recovery and leaves output roughly 400,000 bpd below the benchmark set in the 2026 federal budget.
Nigeria also struggled to meet its 2.06 million bpd production target in 2025. While output improved slightly during the year, it ended 2025 at about 1.4 million bpd, representing a shortfall of more than 600,000 bpd compared to budget assumptions.
By contrast, several OPEC members recorded production increases in December. Saudi Arabia added 34,000 bpd, Iraq 72,000 bpd, Kuwait 11,000 bpd, and the United Arab Emirates 10,000 bpd, underscoring Nigeria’s relative underperformance within the group.
Meanwhile, the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) has issued stringent technical, financial and compliance requirements for bidders participating in Nigeria’s 2025 oil and gas licensing round, warning that only realistic, well-funded and executable proposals would be considered.
The commission said bid evaluation would be conducted strictly on the basis of technical capability, financial strength and the ability to execute proposed work programmes, adding that commitments made during the bidding process would be binding and subject to post-award regulatory oversight.
As part of the 2025 pre-bid conference, the NUPRC pledged to deliver faster and more predictable regulatory approvals, higher and more secure production, credible licensing processes, and world-class safety and governance standards—signalling a push for greater efficiency, accountability and measurable outcomes in the upstream sector.
The bid terms were unveiled as the Minister of Petroleum Resources (Oil), Heineken Lokpobiri, warned that Nigeria would no longer tolerate the speculative acquisition of petroleum licences.
Lokpobiri stressed that oil and gas assets must not be treated as status symbols, noting that petroleum licences remain the property of the Federal Government and are issued strictly for development within defined timelines.
He said licences held without execution added no value to either investors or the Nigerian economy, warning that the era of speculative asset holding “is gone forever” in Nigeria.
The minister also made it clear that the government would not entertain requests for refunds, asset swaps or discretionary remedies after bids had been concluded, stressing that such practices were not provided for under Nigerian law.
