The Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE) says the social impact of Nigeria’s ongoing economic reforms continues to weigh heavily on households, despite improvements in key indicators. It noted that although fundamentals are improving — including disinflation and easing prices of some food and manufactured goods — the cost-of-living crisis remains a major concern.
Gatekeepers News reports that in a policy brief analysing the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) third-quarter 2025 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report, CPPE said the 3.98 percent growth recorded in Q3 shows that the economy “remains firmly on a path of steady recovery and consolidation.”
The report, signed by CPPE Chief Executive Officer Dr. Muda Yusuf, stressed the need for policy interventions that directly address economic discomfort among citizens.
“It is now imperative for policymaking to prioritise targeted interventions to address the uneasiness around the cost of living and ensure that GDP growth and macroeconomic stability translate into real improvements in citizens’ welfare, particularly for vulnerable groups,” it said.
According to the NBS data, the non-oil sector continued to dominate economic activity in Q3 2025, contributing 96.56 percent of total output, largely driven by agriculture.
CPPE said the latest figures reflect the positive influence of government reforms aimed at stabilising the exchange rate, moderating inflation, improving fiscal conditions and restoring investor confidence. “These macroeconomic gains have strengthened business sentiment and supported activity across key sectors of the economy,” it added.
The centre noted that the Q3 rebound was bolstered by greater exchange-rate stability from FX reforms, decelerating inflation and improved investor confidence. “These developments demonstrate that the government’s reform programme is beginning to generate tangible and measurable outcomes across the economy,” it said.
Sectoral performance
CPPE observed that the services sector remained the largest contributor to GDP, accounting for 53 percent of total output. It attributed the sector’s resilience to digital adoption, expansion in financial services and improved business confidence.
Agriculture grew by 3.79 percent, up from 2.82 percent in Q2, but CPPE warned that insecurity, weak rural logistics, low mechanisation and declining purchasing power continue to hinder full recovery.
The manufacturing sector recorded one of the weakest performances, expanding by only 1.25 percent. CPPE linked this to high energy and logistics costs, expensive borrowing, reliance on imported inputs and smuggling of rival products — factors it said continue to erode competitiveness and limit job creation.
The ICT sector grew by 5.78 percent, slightly below its 6.6 percent growth in Q2.
Real estate posted an 89 percent nominal GDP growth, driven by rising property values and asset revaluation. While favourable for investors, CPPE warned the trend “intensifies housing affordability challenges,” especially in major cities, calling for urgent land administration reforms and affordable housing programmes.
Financial services emerged as the best-performing major sector, expanding by 19.63 percent, up from 6.13 percent in Q2. CPPE said the performance “reflects increased economic activity, stronger fiscal operations across all levels of government, and rising confidence in the financial system.”
Policy recommendations
To consolidate Q3 gains and drive more inclusive growth, CPPE urged government to:
•Address structural bottlenecks by improving energy supply, logistics, port efficiency and transport infrastructure.
•Mitigate the cost-of-living crisis.
•Strengthen agricultural productivity.
•Rebuild manufacturing competitiveness.
•Tackle housing affordability.
•Increase funding for social sectors.
•Boost non-oil export competitiveness and stabilise oil output.
CPPE concluded that Nigeria’s Q3 GDP results reaffirm a “gradual but steady recovery path,” but emphasised that achieving “higher, more inclusive, and sustainable growth” requires confronting structural constraints in agriculture, manufacturing and trade.
“Targeted policies to ease cost-of-living pressures are crucial to making the reform process inclusive. With continued reforms, targeted investments, and strengthened governance, Nigeria is well-positioned to deliver stronger economic outcomes in the months ahead,” it said.
