President Bola Tinubu is currently projected to have the strongest position ahead of the 2027 presidential election, with an early political forecast giving him 20 states, compared with nine for former Vice-President Atiku Abubakar and eight for Labour Party candidate Peter Obi.
Gatekeepers News reports that the projection was released by the Political Intelligence Group (PIG) of Politico.ng and is based on the political circumstances prevailing at the moment.
PIG said Tinubu’s perceived progress in stabilising the economy and his efforts to reposition the country could give him an advantage over his major challengers.
According to the forecast, the president is expected to maintain a stronghold over the South-West, with all six states in the region projected to fall into his column.
Lagos, where Tinubu built much of his political career, is also projected to remain with the president.
The forecast further places Kano State in Tinubu’s column, potentially giving him a significant foothold in the North.
Kano, one of Nigeria’s largest electoral territories, is traditionally regarded as a major battleground in presidential elections.
PIG, however, cautioned that the projection does not represent the final outcome of the 2027 election, noting that the political landscape could change considerably before voters go to the polls.
The group identified inflation, unemployment, insecurity, infrastructure and the rising cost of living as some of the issues that could influence voters’ decisions.
It also said the administration’s ability to effectively communicate its achievements and convince Nigerians of the impact of its policies could become a major campaign issue.
Atiku projected to win nine states
Atiku is projected to win nine states, with PIG forecasting that he would retain significant support in parts of Northern Nigeria, including Kaduna and some states in the North-East and North-West.
His established political network and experience from previous presidential campaigns could strengthen his ability to mobilise voters across the region.
PIG also identified Atiku’s position on fuel subsidy as a potential campaign issue, particularly if Nigerians continue to grapple with high transportation costs and rising living expenses.
The former vice-president has advocated a review of the current fuel subsidy policy and measures aimed at easing the impact of petrol prices on Nigerians.
However, the subsidy debate could also raise questions about government revenue, public expenditure and the financial sustainability of subsidising petroleum products.
Atiku’s chances, according to the forecast, could ultimately depend on his ability to combine his northern support with significant backing from other parts of the country.
Obi projected to win eight states
Obi is projected to win eight states, with the Federal Capital Territory and Edo State among the areas expected to favour the Labour Party candidate.
The projection reflects the support Obi garnered during the 2023 presidential election, when he performed strongly in several parts of the country.
His campaign is expected to continue focusing on political change, economic management, accountability, public spending and efficiency in government.
However, one of his major challenges could be expanding his support base beyond areas where he has traditionally performed strongly.
Alliances could alter projection
PIG stressed that its forecast should not be interpreted as a prediction of the final result of the 2027 presidential election.
The group reportedly based its projection on a scenario in which the election was held in September under the political circumstances currently prevailing, with the All Progressives Congress (APC) emerging victorious.
The political equation could change significantly before the election through new alliances, defections, coalition arrangements, the selection of running mates and shifts in the popularity of the candidates.
Economic conditions could also influence voters’ preferences, particularly if inflation, petrol prices, unemployment, insecurity and the cost of living remain major concerns.
Religion, ethnicity and regional interests could equally feature in political calculations, although voters may also place greater emphasis on economic conditions and government performance.
For now, the PIG forecast places Tinubu ahead with 20 states, followed by Atiku with nine and Obi with eight, while acknowledging that the political landscape could change substantially before the 2027 election.
