Nigeria is projected to install 1.7 gigawatts (GW) of solar power capacity in 2026 as Africa’s solar market continues to expand rapidly, according to a new report by Ember, an energy think tank.
Gatekeepers News reports that in its report, titled ‘The take-off in African solar that official statistics can’t yet see’, released on August 27, Ember estimated that Africa would install a record 17GW of solar capacity in 2026, representing a 45 percent increase from the previous year.
The report identified six countries as emerging gigawatt-scale solar markets, with South Africa projected to install 3.3GW, Egypt 2.0GW, Nigeria and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) 1.7GW each, Algeria 1.4GW and Morocco 1.0GW.
“Six countries are now gigawatt markets – we estimate South Africa will install 3.3 GW in 2026, 2.0 GW in Egypt, 1.7 GW in Nigeria, 1.7 GW in the DRC, 1.4 GW in Algeria, and 1.0 GW in Morocco,” Ember said.
The think tank added that the projected growth means about 17GW of solar capacity would be installed across Africa in 2026, equivalent to roughly 100,000 solar panels being installed every day.
Nigeria’s solar expansion
Nigeria’s projected 1.7GW of additional solar capacity is equivalent to about 40 percent of the electricity currently available from the country’s grid-connected power plants.
The Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission (NERC) reported that an average of 4,286 megawatts (MW) was available for dispatch in April from Nigeria’s 13,625MW installed grid capacity.
The projected solar additions would therefore amount to about two-fifths of the electricity that was available from the national grid during the period.
Ember said distributed solar accounted for about 75 percent of all solar capacity added across Africa between 2023 and 2025.
In Nigeria, the report said 370 new solar companies were registered in 2025, nearly seven times the 56 companies registered in 2019.
Nigeria’s solar-panel manufacturing sector is also expected to expand, with Ember projecting that panel production will triple in 2026 compared with 2024.
The report said national solar-panel manufacturing capacity has increased to about 300MW, up from 120MW two years earlier.
Dave Jones, chief analyst at Ember, said countries were increasingly shifting towards cleaner and more secure energy systems.
“Countries are already leapfrogging into faster, more secure, cleaner energy growth, and the governments that get ahead of it stand to gain all the benefits,” he said.
Official data failing to capture solar boom
Ember estimated that Africa’s projected 17GW of new solar capacity in 2026 could generate about 23 terawatt-hours (TWh) of electricity annually.
According to the report, this would be slightly above the continent’s historical annual electricity-demand growth of 2.2 percent recorded between 2014 and 2024.
Ember said that in 28 of Africa’s 54 countries, solar-generation growth in 2026 is expected to exceed historical electricity-demand growth.
However, the think tank said official statistics are failing to fully capture the scale of Africa’s solar expansion, particularly because distributed systems installed by households and businesses are difficult to monitor.
Ember estimated that Africa installed 12GW of solar capacity in 2025 — almost twice the 6.2GW estimated by the International Energy Agency (IEA) and significantly above the 4.6GW estimated by the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA).
The report also highlighted Africa’s dependence on China for solar equipment, noting that 94 percent of solar panels installed across the continent are imported from the Asian country.
‘Africa’s solar revolution is happening now’
Mohamed Adow, director of Power Shift Africa, said the figures demonstrate that the continent’s transition to solar power is already underway, with businesses and households increasingly adopting the technology.
“Africa’s solar revolution is no longer something we’re waiting for – it’s happening right now. What’s particularly significant is that this is no longer just a South African story,” he said.
Adow said governments and international financial institutions must provide affordable financing, stronger electricity grids and battery-storage infrastructure to sustain the expansion.
Joel Nana, research director at African Tech Futures Lab, said the rapid growth of distributed energy resources is challenging traditional approaches to electricity planning across Africa.
“Across Africa, distributed energy resources are rapidly expanding, and in many cases, overtaking grid capacity,” he said.
Nana said policymakers now need to determine whether these systems would remain parallel electricity networks primarily used to compensate for unreliable grids or become integrated into broader national power systems.
